Tag Archives: data assessment

How to estimate uncertain data

Data Estimator is a tool that helps answer questions about uncertain quantities, eg. “What will our company’s sales be next year?”

It is designed to be used as part of an interview process, where expert judgements are drawn out and quantified.

It’s a reminder that in this world of big data, some things remain hard to measure, especially when it comes to the future.

You will be asked a handful of questions, using “probability wheels” like this to visualise the uncertainties:

probability wheel

When you’re done, you will be able to see and export the resulting probability distribution. For example, the result could be “there is a 60% chance this market will more than double in five years, a 20% chance it will more than treble, but a 10% chance it will shrink.”

probability density

It will also show some alternatives for you how you could place the uncertainty in a decision tree, eg.

decision tree node

Try it out here: http://racingtadpole.com/more/estimator/